A Buying Opportunity in Aberdeen?

Aberdeen Township

Last week we looked at the status of real estate in 25 Monmouth County towns as of the end of the 2nd quarter: the median price of a single-family home in each town, and the percentage change from a year ago in 20 of the 25 towns. I didn’t calculate the percentage changes for 5 towns that had fewer than 20 home sales in the first 6 months of either year. Lots of numbers, but do they help us identify any buying opportunities?

Let’s take a closer look at Aberdeen. As of June 30th the median price of a single-family home in Aberdeen is down 5% compared to what it was a year ago. A decrease in the median price is usually a good sign for home buyers and a bad sign for home sellers, but it’s only one of the 4 key, objective real estate indicators that I monitor on a monthly basis to predict what’s happening to the local real estate market.

The 2nd indicator is the number of homes that have sold so far year-to-date. For Aberdeen, the same number of homes sold this year compared to the same 6 month period in 2013, so this indicator is neutral.

The 3rd indicator is the number of homes that are listed for sale. Here I look at an average of the past 12 months, and I find that we’ve had 18% fewer listings in Aberdeen than we did one year ago. Fewer listings indicates a decrease in supply, and less supply usually results in higher prices in the near future because buyers have fewer choices.

The last indicator is an important one: it’s the real estate absorption rate. This is a calculation of how long it would take to sell ALL of the homes currently listed for sale, assuming that homes continue to sell at the same rate as they have in the past 12 months. The reason that it’s so important is that it takes into account both supply and demand. For this indicator, it’s important to look at both the number itself and the change from one year ago. An absorption rate of 5 – 7 months is considered a “normal market”, more than 7 months is a “buyer’s market” and less than 5 months is a “seller’s market”. One year ago the Aberdeen absorption rate was 7.9 months, and currently it’s 5.6 months, so we’ve moved from a “buyer’s market” into a “normal market”. The big drop in the absorption rate is predicting higher prices in the near future.

Here are the 4 objective indicators in tabular form:

 

Aberdeen Home Sales, January 1 – June 30
2013 2014
Sales (Demand) 57 57 Same number of homes sold.
Listings* (Supply) 85 70 18% fewer homes on market.
Months’ Supply* (Absorption Rate) 7.9 5.6 Much stronger demand vs. supply.
*based on the past 12 months
Median Sale $ $300,000 $284,900 5% lower median sales price.

The bottom line is that 2 of the 4 key real estate indicators are predicting higher prices for Aberdeen homes, 1 is predicting lower prices and one is neutral. If you’re considering buying a home in Aberdeen, this may represent a buying opportunity. For at least a short period of time, you may be able to pay less for an Aberdeen home than you would have a year ago. So use Trulia to look for a home you might like, and I’ll be glad to help you find the right house within your price range. I’ll also negotiate as low as purchase price as possible. This is one reason why I always advise home buyers not to call the Listing Agent (even if it’s me). The Listing Agent has a fiduciary responsibility to the Seller to negotiate the highest possible selling price. I’d be glad to act as your Buyer’s Agent, where I’ll be working only for you, and not for the seller.

Call, text or email me!

Len

Dunikoski1212webLeonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760

(732) 239-0739  (cell)    (732) 530-6686 (office)

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

http://www.rumsonfairhavenhome.com

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Where’d that Hummingbird Go?

Dogs at Hummingbird Feeder A

There was a hummingbird at the feeder just a minute ago…

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How’s the Market (in Monmouth County)?

List Your Home with Len Dunikoski

List Your Home with Len Dunikoski

The number one question that REALTORS® are asked is, “How’s the market?”. There are lots of ways to answer that question, and one of the best answers is that it depends whether you’re a Buyer, a Seller or an Investor. There are other good answers as well, and one of them is that all real estate is LOCAL. You can’t read an article in a national newspaper giving statistics for the housing market across the country, because real estate is doing well (i.e., prices are increasing) in some states more than in others. Within a given state you can see some counties that are doing better, and others that are doing worse. The same is true for towns within a given county.

The 2nd quarter statistics are in, and I thought I’d share some of the Monmouth County real estate information with you. I looked at 25 towns in the Eastern part of the county. If we compare the January 1 – June 30 median sales prices of single-family homes for this year to those from 2013, Long Branch has seen the greatest price increase (15.2%) and Eatontown the greatest price decrease (-10.2%). Five of the towns that I follow had fewer than 20 home sales in one or both years, so I didn’t calculate the percentage changes for those towns because I feel those numbers wouldn’t be statistically significant.

Here’s the town by town information for the 25 Monmouth County towns I follow:

Six of the towns saw the median sales price increase by more than 10%, 3 saw increases between 5% and 10%, 6 saw price increases less than 5%, 5 saw median price decreases, and the last 5 had too few sales to calculate a percentage change.

Town Jan 1 – Jun 30 2014
Homes Sold Median Price 
Long Branch 57 $265,000 15.2%
Wall 88 $447,500 14.8%
Little Silver 32 $617,950 12.4%
Fair Haven 50 $678,500 12.1%
Colts Neck 44 $689,850 11.6%
Rumson 48 $1,050,000 10.1%
Oceanport 27 $415,000 9.2%
Tinton Falls 44 $403,700 9.1%
Marlboro 107 $495,500 8.9%
Matawan 26 $312,500 4.2%
Hazlet 77 $285,000 3.6%
Red Bank 24 $337,500 2.3%
Manalapan 114 $456,500 1.4%
Howell 174 $307,500 0.8%
Holmdel 58 $660,750 0.3%
Middletown 241 $375,000 -1.3%
Ocean 77 $350,000 -1.4%
Aberdeen 57 $284,900 -5.0%
West Long Branch 26 $355,500 -6.0%
Eatontown 40 $279,250 -10.2%
Asbury Park 34 $251,800
Atlantic Highlands 19 $375,000
Highlands 16 $217,750
Monmouth Beach 17 $825,000
Shrewsbury 14 $535,000

The bottom line is that real estate is doing very well in some towns and not in others. If you’re thinking of buying a home in Monmouth County, you’ll have to pay more than you would have a year ago in 15 towns but you’ll pay less than you would have in 5 other towns. The old adage about real estate is true: location, location, location.

Len

Dunikoski1212webLeonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760

(732) 239-0739  (cell)    (732) 530-6686 (office)

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

http://www.rumsonfairhavenhome.com

Posted in Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate, Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate Agent, Rumson Fair Haven Realtor, Rumson NJ Real Estate | Tagged | Leave a comment

Rumson Renovation

Diane Turton Realtors - 8 West River Road - Rumson, NJ 07760

Diane Turton Realtors – 8 West River Road – Rumson, NJ 07760

Work has progressing nicely for the past few months on the exterior renovation of the Diane Turton Realtors office at 8 West River Road. The beautiful old beige metal facade is being scraped, repaired and repainted in white, with Diane Turton blue and green trim around the windows and doors. Note the delicate detail work near the top of the building, as well as above the main entrance just below the vertical “Diane Turton” sign.

This beautiful old building is being transformed back into one of the nicest old commercial buildings in town, and its prominent location makes it stand out all the more. We can’t wait until the project is completed!

Len

Posted in Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate, Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate Agent, Rumson Fair Haven Realtor, Rumson NJ Real Estate | Leave a comment

Today’s Brokers’ Open Houses

Pillow at 7 Linden Ln RUM

Every Tuesday, newly-listed homes in our area are opened to Realtors in what are called Brokers’ Open Houses. This gives Realtors a chance to preview new listings and alert their buyers who are interested in homes of that type and price range.

On a typical Tuesday I visit 5 – 10 homes in Rumson, Fair Haven, Red Bank, Middletown, Atlantic Highlands, Highlands, Little Silver, etc. I’ll visit homes listed in all price ranges, from the low $200,000s to several million dollars, and I often bring along a pocket camera and take a picture to remind me of a particularly interesting detail of a house. Often it’s a pretty chandelier, or a well-designed kitchen or bathroom. However, at one house today I saw an interesting little pillow on a couch in a living room, and I had to snap a picture of it. Hope it makes you smile as much as it made me.

Len

Dunikoski1212webLeonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760

(732) 239-0739  (cell)    (732) 530-6686 (office)

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

http://www.rumsonfairhavenhome.com

@ListWithLen

Posted in Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate, Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate Agent, Rumson Fair Haven Realtor, Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Today’s Brokers’ Open Houses

Pillow at 7 Linden Ln RUM Every Tuesday, newly-listed homes in our area are opened to Realtors in what are called Brokers’ Open Houses. This gives Realtors a chance to preview new listings and alert their buyers who are interested in homes of that type and price range.

On a typical Tuesday I visit 5 – 10 homes in Rumson, Fair Haven, Red Bank, Middletown, Atlantic Highlands, Highlands, Little Silver, etc. I’ll visit homes listed in all price ranges, from the low $200,000s to several million dollars, and I often bring along a pocket camera and take a picture to remind me of a particularly interesting detail of a house. Often it’s a pretty chandelier, or a well-designed kitchen or bathroom.

However, at one house today I saw an interesting little pillow on a couch in a living room, and I had to snap a picture of it. Hope it makes you smile as much as it made me.

Len

Dunikoski1212webLeonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760

(732) 239-0739  (cell)    (732) 530-6686 (office)

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

http://www.rumsonfairhavenhome.com

@ListWithLen

Posted in Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate, Rumson Fair Haven Real Estate Agent, Rumson Fair Haven Realtor, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Fair Haven Real Estate Up 12%

136 Kemp Avenue - Fair Haven

136 Kemp Avenue – Fair Haven

Yesterday we looked at the 4 key, objective real estate indicators for Rumson, and today we’ll look at Fair Haven. As of June 30th the median price of a single-family home in Fair Haven is up 12% compared to what it was a year ago. An increase in the median price is a good sign for home sellers and a bad sign for home buyers.

The 2nd indicator is the number of homes that have sold so far year-to-date. For Fair Haven, there have been 28% more sales this year compared to the same 6 month period in 2013. An increase in the number of sales indicates an increase in demand, and greater demand normally results in higher prices in the near future.

The 3rd indicator is the number of homes that are listed for sale. Here I look at an average of the past 12 months, and I find that we’ve had 3% fewer listings in Fair Haven than we did one year ago. Fewer listings indicates a decrease in supply, and lower supply also results in higher prices in the near future because buyers have fewer choices.

The last indicator is an important one: it’s the real estate absorption rate. This is a calculation of how long it would take to sell ALL of the homes currently listed for sale, assuming that homes continue to sell at the same rate as they have in the past 12 months. The reason that it’s so important is that it takes into account both supply and demand. For this indicator, it’s important to look at both the number itself and the change from one year ago. An absorption rate of 5 – 7 months is considered a “normal market”, more than 7 months is a “buyer’s market” and less than 5 months is a “seller’s market”. One year ago the Rumson absorption rate was 3.9 months, and currently it’s 2.9 months. Both numbers are within the range for a “seller’s market”, but now it’s more so than it was a year ago.

Here are the 4 objective indicators in tabular form:

                         Fair Haven Home Sales, Jan 1 – Jun 30
2013 2014
Sales (Demand) 39 50 28% more sales.
Listings* (Supply) 30 29 3% fewer listings.
Months’ Supply* (Absorption Rate) 3.9 2.9 Stronger Demand vs Supply.
*based on the past 12 months
Median Sale $ $605,000 $678,500 12% higher median sales price.

The bottom line is that all 4 key indicators are predicting higher prices for Fair Haven homes. If you’re considering buying a home in Fair Haven, please remember that I’ve lived here since 1975. I’d be glad to help you find the right house within your price range. I’ll also negotiate as low as purchase price as possible. This is one reason why I always advise home buyers not to call the Listing Agent (even if it’s me). The Listing Agent has a fiduciary responsibility to the Seller to negotiate the highest possible selling price. I’d be glad to act as your Buyer’s Agent, where I’ll be working only for you, and not for the seller.

Call, text or email me!

Len

Dunikoski1212webLeonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
Rumson, NJ 07760

(732) 239-0739  (cell)    (732) 530-6686 (office)

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

http://www.rumsonfairhavenhome.com

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